Social media is likely here to stay, but the present biggies Tweeter, Facebook, and MySpace, may not stick around or may become old relics. And, it is yet to be seen if the social media craze settles down, hangs on, or if the next big hype takes over mainstream consciousness. Why? The bell curve of human nature.

The typewriter first hit the market in 1870’s as a novelty, innovation, efficiency device, and wonder of technology that was destined to change business. It did all that and as the decades passed, it improved, became ubiquitous, and arguably reached maturity somewhere in the realm of the IBM Selectric. By the late 1990’s, it was essentially antiquated and mothballed. Look at that history and there’s a bell curve there. No not a nice even one, but a bell curve influenced by the ever faster adoption rate of technology as we’ve moved into modernity.

The gasoline powered car is following a similar curve, with other technologies and fuels poised to end its reign in the next 2-3 decades. How about MTV? It’s still around and a huge brand, but the novelty of its origins, 24×7 music video, is passe with so many other outlets to get (on demand)  music and entertainment from. Then there’s Yahoo – still a big Internet entity, but not like in 1996 when the media went on and on about it being this new killer app that no one can live without. After keeping their head above the competition, they were eclipsed in no time by that other search site G-something or other.

These are not isolated examples. They are the direct product of innovation meeting technology, coupled with the human fascination for the latest and greatest. The cycle will never end and it will always follow some form of bell shaped curve if it takes its normal trajectory.

There’s a new wave of “revolutionary” technology going on right now that the media and culture can’t let go of. Not genome research or nanotechnology. Social media/marketing. We’re told that it will change everything and we will never be able to go back. Yeah, it will probably make profound changes that have lasting effect, but we won’t have to go back, because many of “the old ways” are unlikely to really go anywhere.

The individually crafted, type rendered document is still here, it just comes from a printer now and will for a long time to come. Cars will go on, they’ll just leave gasoline behind and not many people will care. Refined search will continue regardless if Google can hold the number one spot or not.

The only constant here is change… and human nature. So be careful about getting too locked in to any one end all solution to your marketing/promotion needs. You never really know where you are on the bell curve until it’s obvious.